Compare Quick-Service Restaurant Earnings Performance & Stock Reactions
The restaurant industry lives and dies by earnings surprises. When Wingstop or any QSR stock surges post-earnings, it's because the company beat Wall Street's expectations on one or more key metrics: EPS, revenue, same-store sales growth, or forward guidance.
This tool lets you instantly compare how major restaurant chains performed in their latest earnings releases—see the consensus estimates vs. Actual results, the stock price reaction, and what drove the beat or miss. Perfect for investors deciding whether to buy after a surge, or analyzing why your favorite chain underperformed.
Track earnings catalysts, identify patterns in what metrics move stocks the most, and benchmark performance across the industry.
| Feature | Wingstop (WING) | Chipotle (CMG) | Shake Shack (SHAK) | Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) | Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter | Q4 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q4 2025 |
| EPS Consensus | $0.58 | $9.15 | $0.42 | $1.28 | $2.64 |
| EPS Actual | $0.67 | $8.92 | $0.51 | $1.19 | $2.71 |
| Beat/Miss | Beat by 15.5% | Miss by 2.5% | Beat by 21.4% | Miss by 7.0% | Beat by 2.7% |
| Revenue Consensus | $253M | $9.2B | $168M | $1.08B | $1.22B |
| Revenue Actual | $271M | $9.18B | $179M | $1.05B | $1.24B |
| Revenue Beat | Beat by 7.1% | Miss by 0.2% | Beat by 6.5% | Miss by 2.8% | Beat by 1.6% |
| Same-Store Sales Growth | +12.3% YoY | +3.8% YoY | +7.6% YoY | +1.2% YoY | +4.1% YoY |
| Unit Growth | +187 net new units | +89 net new units | +54 net new units | +42 net new units | +31 net new units |
| Stock Price Change | +18.4% | -6.2% | +22.1% | -8.7% | +5.3% |
| Analyst Sentiment | Buy (87% recommend) | Hold (52% recommend) | Buy (71% recommend) | Hold (48% recommend) | Hold (54% recommend) |
| Key Driver | Delivered outperformed, international expansion | Traffic softness, pricing pressure | Menu innovation, premium pricing accepted | Labor cost inflation, beef price spikes | Sports seasons strong, delivery growth |
| Guidance Raised | Yes, FY2026 EPS +12-15% | No, maintained | Yes, FY2026 revenue +8-10% | No, lowered | Modest, FY2026 EPS +2-4% |
Restaurant stocks don't move based on absolute numbers—they move based on expectations vs. Reality. Wall Street sets consensus estimates for EPS, revenue, and same-store sales growth. When a company beats these estimates, the stock typically surges. When it misses, it drops.
For Wingstop's recent surge, the key catalysts were: (1) EPS beat of 15.5%—showing strong margin expansion and unit-level profitability, (2) Same-store sales growth of +12.3%—proving traffic and pricing power in an inflationary environment, and (3) Raised FY2026 guidance—indicating management confidence in continued momentum.
Unlike commodity-heavy casual dining (Texas Roadhouse facing beef inflation), or high-traffic plays facing traffic pressures (Chipotle), Wingstop benefited from a franchise model that passes labor costs to franchisees while the company captures royalties on higher volumes. This margin profile resonates with growth-focused investors.
EPS (Earnings Per Share): The company's profit divided by shares outstanding. This is the #1 metric investors watch. A 15% beat means the company earned 15% more per share than Wall Street expected. Why? Higher margins, lower taxes, or better cost control.
Same-Store Sales (Comps): Growth in sales at locations open 12+ months. This proves traffic/pricing, not just new unit expansion. A +12% comp at Wingstop means each restaurant is doing more business—that's genuinely strong.
Unit Growth: New restaurant openings. Franchisees are voting with their capital—187 net new Wingstop units signals franchise confidence and future royalty streams. When franchisees slow openings (like Texas Roadhouse with +42 vs. Historical +150+), analysts smell trouble ahead.
Guidance: Forward-looking statements from management. When raised post-earnings, it's the most bullish signal—management is confident enough to promise higher future profits. Wingstop's raised guidance (+12-15% EPS growth) extended the stock surge.
A stock surge isn't irrational—it's mathematical. If analysts expected Wingstop to earn $0.58 per share and it actually earned $0.67, they now need to re-price the stock. If they were valuing WING at 40x earnings at $23.20 on the old estimate, the new $26.80 valuation (40x $0.67) is justified by math alone. Add in raised guidance, and suddenly $27-29 is the new fair value.
But here's the catch: earnings momentum is fragile. Wingstop's surge assumes Q1 2026 doesn't disappoint. If comps slow, if franchisees get cautious (fewer units), or if chicken commodity prices spike, the stock can reverse. Investors using this tool should track future quarters—the real test is whether the Q4 beat was a one-time event or the start of a multi-quarter outrun.
Compare to Shake Shack's +22% surge: both beat earnings, but Shake Shack's margin expansion (premium menu acceptance) and traffic growth (+7.6%) suggest more sustainable upside. Chipotle's miss despite brand strength highlights how even great companies stumble when execution falters.
For Active Traders: This tool identifies momentum plays. Wingstop and Shake Shack surged on broad-based beats (EPS, revenue, guidance). These are candidates for 3-6 month momentum trades before sentiment shifts.
For Value Investors: Watch the misses. Chipotle and Texas Roadhouse fell on earnings—but if you believe traffic/margins recover in H2 2026, these are potential bargain entry points with less competition for shares.
For Growth Investors: Unit growth matters most. Wingstop's +187 units, Shake Shack's +54—these translate to future revenue streams. Even if Q4 was strong, declining unit growth in future quarters is a red flag.
For Income Investors: Track guidance and dividend policy. Raised guidance often precedes dividend hikes. Buffalo Wild Wings' modest guidance raise suggests limited dividend upside soon, while Wingstop's confidence may unlock capital return opportunities.
Quick answers to common questions